2026 Outlook
Our model projects the 2026 House, Senate and Governor races from one number — the projected national vote — which is used as the starting point for each race as each race is different. Every projection on this page is the middle of ten thousand simulated elections, and every chance is the share of them that went one way. There are a ton of unknowns, but explore around the Projection Desk to see the data for , each candidate, and the funding that is influencing the elections. If we’re missing something or you’d like to reach out, shoot us a note at [email protected] — we’d love to hear from you.
One slider, because the model drives all three chambers from this single number. Drag it and all three panels move together. Include polling error allows for how far the polling averages have missed in the past; unchecked, the national vote is treated as known.